AI Chat on Saving Babies

The following is from a chat with AI regarding the effectiveness of the New A3:

proponents of the new A3 state that it will save 99% of babies – over the current A3 which has no restrictions except age of viability. However, if the new A3 bans abortion, with the stated exceptions, and it does not prohibit mail order abortion pills or driving over state lines for abortion, will it actually prevent abortions for women who want one?

Show less Analyzed A3 2026 effectiveness

Short answer: No, the data suggests it would not prevent most abortions for women who want one.

The evidence from Missouri’s own 2022–2024 ban period is the most direct test:

• Out-of-state travel: ~12,600 Missouri women traveled to Kansas or Illinois for abortions in 2023. That number dipped to ~11,690 in 2025, but didn’t disappear. 
• Mail-order pills: ~3,220 Missourians obtained medication abortions via out-of-state telehealth in 2025 — a quadrupling from ~880 in 2023.  The ban accelerated this channel rather than eliminating it.
• Overall: During the total ban, abortions among Missouri residents continued. As one Springfield Daily Citizen article put it: “The ban did little to curb demand.” 

Why the amendment can’t close these channels:

A3 binds in-state providers — clinics, physicians, and the standards they follow. It has no constitutional reach over:

• Out-of-state telehealth providers mailing pills into Missouri (regulating that would implicate the Commerce Clause)
• Missourians traveling to Kansas, Illinois, or other states 

Act for Missouri’s analysis states it plainly: “it would largely formalize the existing situation where abortions for Missouri residents continue to occur, just beyond state lines and outside of traditional clinical settings.” 

So the “99% saved” claim is not supported by the data. The realistic effect of A3 passing would be:

• In-state clinic abortions drop sharply (most providers would close or stop)
• Out-of-state travel and mail-order pills remain the primary access routes
• The total number of abortions by Missouri residents would decline somewhat (due to added cost, time, and logistical friction) but not by 99%

The “99%” figure essentially counts every pregnancy that would have been aborted in-state as “saved,” ignoring that the same woman can drive to Kansas or order pills online. It’s a metric of where the procedure happens, not whether it happens.

what percentage would it save?

Estimating prevented abortion percentage

Based on the data, the realistic number is roughly 1–3%, not 99%.

Here’s the math:

Pre-ban (2021): ~3,653 reported abortions on Missouri residents — but this was a massive undercount. The Lozier Institute’s estimated resident ratio (148.7 per 1,000) was three times the reported ratio (43.7), implying the true pre-ban number was closer to 10,000+. 

Post-ban (2022–2023): The estimated total of Missouri residents obtaining abortions out of state was 10,255 in 2022 and ~11,600 in 2023. In-state procedures fell to essentially zero (88 in 2022, 37 in 2023).

The net effect: Abortions by Missouri residents didn’t drop — they increased slightly, because the ban pushed everyone to the travel/telehealth channel. The only measure of actual pregnancies “saved” is the birth rate change: 0.4% increase (per the NYT/CDC analysis). On a state with ~50,000–60,000 annual births, that’s roughly 200–250 additional births per year, against a baseline of ~10,000+ abortions.

That works out to about 2–3% of potential abortions actually prevented.

Where the “99%” comes from: It counts the ~88 in-state procedures that would have happened as “saved.” But those 88 were already a rounding error — the TRAP laws had reduced in-state abortions from 9,234 (2011) to 167 (2020) before the ban. The “99%” is measuring the decline of in-state clinics, not the decline of abortions.

The travel-distance research confirms this: each additional 100 miles to the nearest clinic reduces abortions by ~19%.  Missouri’s average driving distance increased by only ~2 miles (Illinois border clinics were already serving Missourians), so the deterrent effect was minimal. 

So: the amendment would save roughly a few hundred babies per year, not 99% of at-risk pregnancies.